This general election represents a combination of long term historical decline of British Capitalism; a Ruling Class divided; New Labour trying to salvage its influence in the Labour Party; rise of Social Democracy; and sizeable middle class layers rejecting the Tory Party. The ruling class divisions goes back for nearly two centuries. Differences over whether to go with the EU-Imperialist led bloc or American Imperialism is essentially the continuation of a dispute known as Free Trade versus Protectionism. The key difference is that since the 19th Century to the early decades of 20th Century British Capialism was a very dominant power. Today British Capitalism is massively in decline with Blair and Brown being linked to Neo-Con policies which is leading to US Imperialism losing a war in Iraq and British Imperialism losing a US-led Imperialist war within Afghanistan. Now on top of this British Capitalism is facing one one of its worse economic crisis in its history as world Capialism in its decay is entering its worse crisis. Will Hutton made an interesing historical observation in the Observer when the Northrn Rock crisis broke out in the Autumn of 1997 that there was no run on a British bank since the 19th Century. Hutton pointed out that Churchill remarked during the 1930s Depression that if there had been a run on a British bank it would have finished the British Empire.
These differnces over strategy and tactics within the ruling class is imporant to understand class and inter-class relations as they change rapidly change dialectically. Lenin and Trotsky argued divisions within a ruling class is one necessary condition for revoluion. Cameron has tried to win the Liberal Bourgeoisie over by saying that despite being a problem over Euroskepticism the Tories will attack the workers more effecively. When there are divisions within the ruling class they undercut each other and through manouvering with other classes attempt to shape events for their interests. Most Liberal Bourgeois elements do not want the Tories in office with the Euro in crisis which could further weaken and destroy that currency and the EU. The Lib Dems have been used to stop a Tory majority and also implement cutbacks by forming a coalition government wih a Bourgeois faction (New Labour) and right wing Social Democrats wihin a Social Democratic Labour Party. Another consideration is by the Lib Dems adapting to middle class anger is stop them temporially looking to working class leadership through the Trade Unions and potential left Social Democraic tendencies within the Labour Party. Capitalism is being shown to be bankrupt daily. British Imperialism's foreign policy strategies cannot work because the Euro will collapse at some point and Imperialist nation states will become more powerful as inter-Imperialist tensions deepen. Marx is still correct the two fundamental contradictions of Capialism is that they create world markets but are dominated by Imperialist nation states and that conflict between Capital and Labour cannot be reconciled.
The Liberal Bourgeoisie represented by Indusrial Capialists were in a growing conflict with Conservative Bourgeois Merchants and Arisocrats which led to revoluionary upheavals in 1832. This forced the middle class having a right to vote. Once the Tories introduced Corn Law leglislation Liberal Bourgeois elements removed them in government by a combinaion of splitting their party and forming coalitions with the Whigs (becoming Liberal Party during late 1850s). It was only after 30 years when they agreed under Disralei not to make Protectionism a major issue did the ruling class allow the Tories to form governments again. Another consideration which the ruling class may have used the Tories as a barganiship against the rise of German and American Imperialism which were competing for British markets and who were putting up protective tariffs. It is interesing to note it was the Primrose League led by Disraeli and Randoloph Churchill which was used to make sure Disreali became Tory leader. The Primrose League dissolved in 2004 when Howard was Tory leader, approxmately 12 months before Cameron became leader. This dissolving of the Primrose League after nearly one and half centuries existing is an interesting development which might mean the Tory Party could be in terminal crisis.
In 1866 Marx argued the victory of Lincoin in the American Civil War; Italian unifcation of 1861; and rise of Bourgeois Nationalism in Hungary during the 1860s helped a radicalisation among British workers. During 1866 workers demanding a right to vote when they were not allowed a rally at Hyde Park broke that park's railings. Fearing a revolution the ruling class allowed most male workers the right to vote. After certain workers run the right to vote the Liberal and Tory Parties vied to gain their vote. The Tories main base was among the Aristocracy of Labour. In order to prevent workers organising their own party the Liberal Party attemped to gain votes from poorer workers and to run Trade Union candidates who subordinated themselves to Liberal Bourgeois politics. Eventually Trade Unionists had to break from the Liberal Party and form their own party because both Tories and Liberals brought in anti-strike leglislation. This is why it is such a setback for class independence that the Bourgeois elements (New Labour faction) and right wing Social Democrats are pushing for a coalition government with an anti-working class party such as the Lib Dems who will attempt to make workers and middle class pay for Capitalist crisis. If there is a hung parliament and a coalition government is formed it could a major crisis which could lead to a mass left wing shift within the Labour Party or a massisve left split which could win a landslide under PR.
The Labour Represenation Committee was established in 1900. In 1905 the Tory government fell over differences concerning over Imperial British Empire tariffs. Campbell-Bannerman was asked to form a Liberal government. He decided to call a general election. It led to a Liberal Party landslide. Trotsky argued this was their last resurgence before the Labour Party eclisped them in the 1920s. Due to workers wanting cheap bread from imported foods the Liberal Pary argued in that election if tariffs were introduced the poorest workers would die from starvaion due to not affording bread prices. The Parliamentary Labour Pary was set up after Parliament reconvened in early 1906. They had increased their representation from 2 in 1900 General Election to 25+ during 1906 election. Reforms were introduced to stop Labour's growth; prevent a revolution; and outmanouvre the Tory Party. In the 1910 election there was a hung parlinament. The Liberals only stayed in power in alliance with Labour and Irish Bourgeois Nationalists. If Lloyd Geroge had not call for a slight tax on Aristocratic estates to fund old age pensions the Tories would have won that 1910 election which could have potentially streenghened Protectionist tendencies. This is an example of Liberal Bourgeois elements utilising other classes to strenghen their sectional faction within the ruling class. His demagogic speeches in East London is shown in episode 2 of Andrew Marr's series on "the making of modern Britain".
During 1916 the Liberal Party split when Llyod George with the Tories removed Asquith as Prime Minister. This represented a deal between Liberal and Conservative Bourgeois elements to close ranks in order to win World War 1 against German Imperialism attempting to replace them as a major Imperialist world power. Lloyd George remained Prime Minister until 1922 despite Tories being the largest party after a 1918 general election because Liberal Bourgeois elments wanted it guarnteed that Protectionist measures were not introduced. Labour in that 1918 election replaced Liberals as the second largest party. This was a result of a workers radicalisation due to strikes and increased hardships due to World War 1. The October 1917 Russian Socialist revolution also had a major radicalising effect. All these processes led to the rise of Social Democracy. Until the 1923 General Election there were two Liberal parties running against each other. There was a Liberal Party reunifcation to fight that general election becasue Baldwin was suggesing Protectionist measures. Out of that election there was the first minority Labour government. It was only in this election that the Liberal Party ever reached 150+ seats. The highest since then was at the 1929 and 2005 general elections of 50+ and 62.
After a few months the Tories brought down the Labour government in 1924. The Tories won a landslide in a general election held during October 1924. Bourgeois analysts believed by using the Zinionviev letter forgery they won Liberal Party voters over to voting Tory in order to stop Labour forming a government. There were sharp class conflicts after that election culminaing in a 1926 general strike. The workers looked politically after Trade Union Bureaucrats sold out that general strike by voting labour in 1929. Due to McDonald not being able to implement cuts in social security he formed a coalition with Tories and Liberals which led to his expulsion from the Labour Party. McDonald called a general election which led to the Tories being the biggest Coalition party with them winning 55% of the popular vote. This was the last general election where a party recieved 50% or over in popular votes. The closest was 1945 where Labour was a few thousand short of recieving 50%. Labour in the 1931 general election was reduced to 52 seats. McDonald was kept as Prime Minister partly to reduce Protectionist measures. During the mid-1930s Baldwin managed to implement protectionist measures. This led to the Liberal Party spliting three ways. Lloyd George refused to join the coalition government in 1931. Herbert Samuel left the coalition government once Baldwin annoucned those measures. There were established a party called Liberal National that stayed in the coalition due to agreements with protectionism.
Since World War 2 British Imperialism has been on the decline. American Imperialism humilating British Imperialism over Suez in 1956 made Britain's ruling class sober up to their real power in the world. Due to the Soviet victories against German Fascism/Imperialism despite those Bureaucrats intentions provoked revolutionary upheavals in France; Italy; and Greece. In Germany during May 1945 tens of thousands of workers were marching with red flags. Those developments influenced the 1945 British general election. Due to the 1930s depression and hardship of World War 2 there was a working and layers of a middle class radicalisation to rebuild houses; establishment of NHS; a welfare state; public services extended in education; and nationalisation of certain industries. All this led to Labour's 1945 lanslide vicory. It was only in 1997 and 2001 general elections did labour win a bigger landslide.
The Eden faction won out in the Tory Party over to accepting that they would not reverse most of Labour's reforms. In a 1951 general election labour won 13 million votes and won more popular votes than Tories but Tories won that election. They re-privaised 100 nationalised steel companies. This was their first act in government. By ending rationing was one factor in winning a 1955 general election. McMillan won the 1959 general election on a slogan "you never had it so good!" By that demagogic slogan he attempted to incorporate a workers radicalisation into Bourgeois poliics. This did no work with strikes increasing. There was also a middle class radicalisaion which was beginning to support workers struggles and fights against Racism. That trend was represented by what became known as angry young men. The radicalisation against Racism and Sexism was influenced by a civil rights movement in America. The Porfumo scanadal weakened the ruling class's authority over millions of workers. All these developments culminated in Labour winning the 1964 and 1966 general elections. There were reforms on social questions such as abortion and decriminalising Homosexuality. Wilson's attack on the Trade Unions led to disillusionment among workers which played into Heath's hand in 1970. Racism whipped up by Enoch Powell helped the Tories win the 1970 general election. There was a 9% swing in Powell's constitunency which indicated how racism and xenophobia strenghthens capital over the workers. The wokers payed a price with Tories viciously attacking Unions.
Thatcher accelerate this decline further with closing a third of manufacturing industry. Trotsky said that finance capital dominates Capitalism. This is why Trotskyists argue that you have to protect productive forces Capitalism tends to destroy by overthrowing Capital which will centralise socialisation of economic capacity. As Marx said in the Communist Manifesto in periods of crisis Capital will destroy what was economically built up in order to reduce surplus products which are no longer profitable. Due to Thatcher beating the unions she suceeded in destroying millions of jobs. In other Western European countries workers won more battles, therefore stopping their ruling classes carrying out redundancies on a similar scale.
Workers brought Heath down during a 1973-74 miners strike. This led to a minority labour government after winning February and October 1974 general elections. They were used by the ruling class to contain a workers radicalisation. When they imposed wage reductions it upset the Aristocracy of Labour. The middle class was alienated due to class battles not being won by capital or labour. Thatcher played on middle class layers being against strikes to win the 1979 general election. She won the Aristocracy of Labour by allowing them to own their own council homes and buy shares through privatising certain nationalised industries. If it was not for the Falklands War in 1982 she would have lost the 1983 general election due to her policies of causing millions being made unemployed. The 1987 general election was just won by Thatcher due to a economic recovery beginning.
After the 1987 general election there were beginnings of a middle class radicalisation. It was over against the strong state championed by Thatcher; they feared losing out in 1987-90 recession; and against the Poll Tax. This combined with a growing workers radicalisation forced Thatcher out. Liberal Bourgeois elements also removed Thatcher as Prime Minister because she was too destructive to the EEC (predeccessor to EU). Major attemped to adapt to a middle class radicalisation by attempting to appear more liberal. In the 1992 general election the Tory Party won 14 million votes, the highest of any party in British electoral history. Then dialectically after that election it turned into its opposite by the nex general election in 1997 where they suffered their worse defeat since 1832. This was a result of the working and sizeable layers of a middle class radicalisation deepening. Britain pulling out of ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) in September 1992 led to middle class losing confidence in the Tories. There is an histoiric myth that it was New Labour who won the 1997 landslide. Even under John Smith Labour was 15% to 20% ahead of Tories in the polls. The middle class were involved in ecologial campaigns against motorways in Newbury; against Criminal Justice 1994 Bill which limited right to assembly; and for cancellation of Third World debts.
I have analysed in previous documents what the 1997 and 2001 general elections represented a radicalisaion; and left/right shifts since then (see blog 1 report on 2007 LRC conference). I am not going to repeat myself on these themes. It is difficult to predict the outcome of this general election. The workers could go back to labour due to fearing Tory attacks. Clegg may have overplayed his hand in trying to determine the next Labour Party leader. Balls coming out against a coalition government with him sidelining Mandelson could represent a move by Trade Union Bureaucrats to stop a coalition. There is competition between Lib Dems and Tories to be the main Bourgeois party. Portillo said last night that the masses may vote Lib Dem to get PR introduced. PR will allow more left wing and right wing parties chance to get a bigger base. During a week Portillo has changed his line from supporing PR to opposing it. He maybe trying to win the Bourgeoisie away from PR by convincing them that it will destabalise politics. The Lib Dems will decline after this election due to possible resurgance of Social Democracy and polarisation beween left and right. If the Tories lose this election Cameron maybe removed as leader with right wing populists becoming leader. Trotskyists oppose a coalition governmnt with the Lib Dems because a working class party is subordinating themselves to a Capitalist party. There maybe revolutionary upheavals against the extent of cuts.
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