Will banking collapse or more austerity measures in Greece lead to more pre-Revolutionary crises?

ARE REVOLUTIONARY UPHEAVALS WITHIN THE IMPERIALIST COUNTRIES MORE LIKELY IF AUSTERITY MEASURES GETS WORSE OR BANKS COLLAPSE? BY ANTHONY BRAIN


The Occupy Wall Street movement is a turning point in terms of mass struggles against Capital’s attempts to make workers and middle class pay for falling profits of Capitalists. In how this movement has emerged and its mass character shows millions of workers and sizeable middle class layers will not tolerate these attacks anymore.


This is very bad timing for the Western European Capitalists. Due to losses of Western European banks which are on the brink of going bankrupt there was talk on Newsnight programme last week that half a trillion Euros (500 Billion Euros) would be needed to stop these banks going bankrupt. French Capital hopes that this money is made available by the European Central Bank (ECB) based in Frankfurt, in Germany. There is big resistance by German Capitalists who do not want to help their Imperialist rivals. In periods of Capitalist crisis within the Imperialist countries Rosa Luxemburg argued was their nation states’ being strengthened in increased competition for declining markets.


In the last two days there have been rumours on the British TV news programmes that the ECB will allocate 100 Billion Euros to bank re-capitalization and that Greece will be given 7 billion in a loan to repay their debts. On ITV news tonight it is reported there are no real agreement on any concrete measures. It is clear that the Greeks cannot repay their debts in full. There is talk of the banks receiving losing between 50% and 60% of their loans investments. Bourgeois Economists use the jargon term of “taking a haircut” to describe these sorts of losses. The most likely development is banks using a lot of money forcing considerable number of them into bankruptcy. Reaching a plaster-like deal which prolongs Greek attempts to repay debts seems unlikely but cannot be ruled out.


Trotskyists need to understand whatever happens next the working class and middle class are going to rebel more as Capital attacks them more. Even in the best scenario for Western European bankers of Greek debt is repaid longer for several weeks to months (at most) the attempted increased austerity measures will lead to bigger revolutionary upheavals in Greece. If the banks’ collapse and millions of workers and middle class elements cannot access their bank accounts this could be a tipping point for revolutionary upheavals within Imperialist countries to threaten Finance Capital’s rule and governments. During December 2001 the banks’ collapse led to the overthrow of a right wing government within Argentina.


The Imperialist ruling classes will manouvre to contain any serious revolutionary threats. Trotsky uses the formula in such situations they make desperate last-minute concessions to the masses in order to stop Socialist revolutions succeeding. Under such threats Liberal Bourgeois elements may feel the necessity of making significant reforms to the working and middle class. Social Democracy may be utilized in Western Europe for those purposes and to hegemonies these radicalizations. Greek Social Democracy is becoming too discredited to play this role. Stalinism may be used by Greek ruling class as a second option to contain threat of Socialist revolution.


One secondary mistake I made in September 2010 was to think Miliband was going over to Social Democracy. On the major issue of his social base in terms of middle class youth, especially students; wider middle class; Trade Union Bureaucrats; and millions of workers were voting for him as leader hoping he strengthen Social Democracy and isolate New Labour. He only survives as leader due to opportunist deals by Trade Union Bureaucrats. Those forces (except for cynical Trade Union Bureaucrats) who voted for Miliband felt betrayed by his deceit.


If Miliband comes out again against the November 30th strikes his cosy relationship which some Trade Union bureaucrats have with Miliband could very likely end as they cannot justify it to rank-and-file Trade Unionists. Trotskyists are missing an historic opportunity due to Ultra-Left forces still having influence to build a mass left wing within the Labour Party of those working and middle class forces radicalizing. By conducting such united front tactics against Miliband Trotskyists would be in a good position to break millions of workers from Social Democracy and towards revolutionary politics. The mistake in September 2010 I made that Miliband would go over to Social Democracy willingly was to under-estimate that he represented New Labour despite the concessions to right wing Social Democrats in opposing ComDem (popular reference to Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition government) would do everything to salvage that New Labour social layer. As a Trotskyist I am opposed to all cuts.


Already Liberal Bourgeois layers reflected by the New York Times in America are trying to contain the radicalization which the Occupy Wall Street movement represents by appearing to support this movement and gear it into Keynesian measures to increase regulations of banking and speculation. Conservative Bourgeois elements in America such as Ron Paul are adapting to the Occupy Wall Street movement by appearing to support it hoping middle class layers move away from their left wing direction of looking to the workers for them to lead a fight against Capital. If the Trade Union Bureaucrats and other opportunists within the workers movement betray anti-Capitalist struggles Right Wing Populists such as Paul hopes to capitalize on despair that would generate within the middle class and hopes to turn them against the working class.


Imperialist Nationalism including liberal versions Trotskyists has to reject because they promote reactionary oppressor nationalism. The American SWP before 1981 in the tradition of Lenin and Trotsky correctly distinguished between the nationalism of the oppressor and those of the oppressed. Conservative Bourgeois elements within Imperialist countries utilize such nationalism to blame other Capitalists in other countries exclusively for socio-economic crises. They also use scapegoats such as Jews; Muslims; and other non-White ethnicities for those problems.


Liberal Bourgeois Imperialist nationalism is equally reactionary because it promotes illusions Imperialist ruling classes will fundamentally change from their exploitative character, and abandon racism; Islamophobia; or ant-Semitism altogether. Their differences with Conservative Bourgeois elements is at most strategic differences or sometimes tactical disagreements over how it affects Capitalist profits/markets or how best to maintain ruling class rule.


Rachael Horwitz has made her worse mistake in adapting to this middle class layer who have those illusions in Liberal Bourgeois layers. Horwitz obviously does not support the Liberal Bourgeoisie or shares these middle class illusions. The mistake is she makes is conceding to English Liberal Nationalism by even signing up to “We like England”. Trotskyists should set up separate facebook groups calling for a workers/Socialist England. We would pose transitional demands to win workers; middle class; and all oppressed nationalities/ethnicities; women; and gays/lesbians of those classes over to this politics.


If the banks’ collapse in Western Europe and America within days positive dynamics of Occupy Wall Street movement will advance much faster in possibly creating pre-revolutionary crises. Any prolonging of Capitalist crisis for several weeks/months will give the chances for Conservative Bourgeois elements to influence any despair coming from lack of success in Occupy Wall Street movement. Trotskyist strategies and tactics have to be to break any Bourgeois influences among those radicalizing and push for mass action to show the masses their power. These are the best ways to build up for Socialist revolutions.