TWO GRAMMATICAL CORRECTIONS TO DOCUMENT ON BANKING COLLAPSE AND ONE SUPPLEMENTARY COMMENTS CONCERNING OCCUPY WALL STREET MOVEMENT AS AN INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENT BY ANTHONY BRAIN.
First on the grammatical corrections I missed out important words on two paragraphs on contradictions between Miliband as really representing neo-New Labour in conflict with the Social Democratic nature of the Labour Party. On page 2, paragraph 2 I missed out the word correct on the main point of document written by me in September 2010 that the social base that elected Miliband as leader represented a radicalization despite my secondary errors he would mainly go over to Social Democracy. On Page 2, paragraph 3, extending to page 3, paragraph 1 I missed out Miliband made deal with Right Wing Social Democrats to oppose certain ConDem cuts.
What’s missing in the document is not mentioning the international dimension of the Occupy Wall Street movement. One million marched against Capitalism internationally in 80+ countries during October 15th 2011. It is the biggest mobilization since the February 15th 2003 internationally co-ordinated demonstrations against war in Iraq. The internationalist character of this movement will make it harder for Imperialist Bourgeoisies to contain this movement.
Monday, 24 October 2011
Will banking collapse or more austerity measures in Greece lead to more pre-Revolutionary crises?
ARE REVOLUTIONARY UPHEAVALS WITHIN THE IMPERIALIST COUNTRIES MORE LIKELY IF AUSTERITY MEASURES GETS WORSE OR BANKS COLLAPSE? BY ANTHONY BRAIN
The Occupy Wall Street movement is a turning point in terms of mass struggles against Capital’s attempts to make workers and middle class pay for falling profits of Capitalists. In how this movement has emerged and its mass character shows millions of workers and sizeable middle class layers will not tolerate these attacks anymore.
This is very bad timing for the Western European Capitalists. Due to losses of Western European banks which are on the brink of going bankrupt there was talk on Newsnight programme last week that half a trillion Euros (500 Billion Euros) would be needed to stop these banks going bankrupt. French Capital hopes that this money is made available by the European Central Bank (ECB) based in Frankfurt, in Germany. There is big resistance by German Capitalists who do not want to help their Imperialist rivals. In periods of Capitalist crisis within the Imperialist countries Rosa Luxemburg argued was their nation states’ being strengthened in increased competition for declining markets.
In the last two days there have been rumours on the British TV news programmes that the ECB will allocate 100 Billion Euros to bank re-capitalization and that Greece will be given 7 billion in a loan to repay their debts. On ITV news tonight it is reported there are no real agreement on any concrete measures. It is clear that the Greeks cannot repay their debts in full. There is talk of the banks receiving losing between 50% and 60% of their loans investments. Bourgeois Economists use the jargon term of “taking a haircut” to describe these sorts of losses. The most likely development is banks using a lot of money forcing considerable number of them into bankruptcy. Reaching a plaster-like deal which prolongs Greek attempts to repay debts seems unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
Trotskyists need to understand whatever happens next the working class and middle class are going to rebel more as Capital attacks them more. Even in the best scenario for Western European bankers of Greek debt is repaid longer for several weeks to months (at most) the attempted increased austerity measures will lead to bigger revolutionary upheavals in Greece. If the banks’ collapse and millions of workers and middle class elements cannot access their bank accounts this could be a tipping point for revolutionary upheavals within Imperialist countries to threaten Finance Capital’s rule and governments. During December 2001 the banks’ collapse led to the overthrow of a right wing government within Argentina.
The Imperialist ruling classes will manouvre to contain any serious revolutionary threats. Trotsky uses the formula in such situations they make desperate last-minute concessions to the masses in order to stop Socialist revolutions succeeding. Under such threats Liberal Bourgeois elements may feel the necessity of making significant reforms to the working and middle class. Social Democracy may be utilized in Western Europe for those purposes and to hegemonies these radicalizations. Greek Social Democracy is becoming too discredited to play this role. Stalinism may be used by Greek ruling class as a second option to contain threat of Socialist revolution.
One secondary mistake I made in September 2010 was to think Miliband was going over to Social Democracy. On the major issue of his social base in terms of middle class youth, especially students; wider middle class; Trade Union Bureaucrats; and millions of workers were voting for him as leader hoping he strengthen Social Democracy and isolate New Labour. He only survives as leader due to opportunist deals by Trade Union Bureaucrats. Those forces (except for cynical Trade Union Bureaucrats) who voted for Miliband felt betrayed by his deceit.
If Miliband comes out again against the November 30th strikes his cosy relationship which some Trade Union bureaucrats have with Miliband could very likely end as they cannot justify it to rank-and-file Trade Unionists. Trotskyists are missing an historic opportunity due to Ultra-Left forces still having influence to build a mass left wing within the Labour Party of those working and middle class forces radicalizing. By conducting such united front tactics against Miliband Trotskyists would be in a good position to break millions of workers from Social Democracy and towards revolutionary politics. The mistake in September 2010 I made that Miliband would go over to Social Democracy willingly was to under-estimate that he represented New Labour despite the concessions to right wing Social Democrats in opposing ComDem (popular reference to Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition government) would do everything to salvage that New Labour social layer. As a Trotskyist I am opposed to all cuts.
Already Liberal Bourgeois layers reflected by the New York Times in America are trying to contain the radicalization which the Occupy Wall Street movement represents by appearing to support this movement and gear it into Keynesian measures to increase regulations of banking and speculation. Conservative Bourgeois elements in America such as Ron Paul are adapting to the Occupy Wall Street movement by appearing to support it hoping middle class layers move away from their left wing direction of looking to the workers for them to lead a fight against Capital. If the Trade Union Bureaucrats and other opportunists within the workers movement betray anti-Capitalist struggles Right Wing Populists such as Paul hopes to capitalize on despair that would generate within the middle class and hopes to turn them against the working class.
Imperialist Nationalism including liberal versions Trotskyists has to reject because they promote reactionary oppressor nationalism. The American SWP before 1981 in the tradition of Lenin and Trotsky correctly distinguished between the nationalism of the oppressor and those of the oppressed. Conservative Bourgeois elements within Imperialist countries utilize such nationalism to blame other Capitalists in other countries exclusively for socio-economic crises. They also use scapegoats such as Jews; Muslims; and other non-White ethnicities for those problems.
Liberal Bourgeois Imperialist nationalism is equally reactionary because it promotes illusions Imperialist ruling classes will fundamentally change from their exploitative character, and abandon racism; Islamophobia; or ant-Semitism altogether. Their differences with Conservative Bourgeois elements is at most strategic differences or sometimes tactical disagreements over how it affects Capitalist profits/markets or how best to maintain ruling class rule.
Rachael Horwitz has made her worse mistake in adapting to this middle class layer who have those illusions in Liberal Bourgeois layers. Horwitz obviously does not support the Liberal Bourgeoisie or shares these middle class illusions. The mistake is she makes is conceding to English Liberal Nationalism by even signing up to “We like England”. Trotskyists should set up separate facebook groups calling for a workers/Socialist England. We would pose transitional demands to win workers; middle class; and all oppressed nationalities/ethnicities; women; and gays/lesbians of those classes over to this politics.
If the banks’ collapse in Western Europe and America within days positive dynamics of Occupy Wall Street movement will advance much faster in possibly creating pre-revolutionary crises. Any prolonging of Capitalist crisis for several weeks/months will give the chances for Conservative Bourgeois elements to influence any despair coming from lack of success in Occupy Wall Street movement. Trotskyist strategies and tactics have to be to break any Bourgeois influences among those radicalizing and push for mass action to show the masses their power. These are the best ways to build up for Socialist revolutions.
The Occupy Wall Street movement is a turning point in terms of mass struggles against Capital’s attempts to make workers and middle class pay for falling profits of Capitalists. In how this movement has emerged and its mass character shows millions of workers and sizeable middle class layers will not tolerate these attacks anymore.
This is very bad timing for the Western European Capitalists. Due to losses of Western European banks which are on the brink of going bankrupt there was talk on Newsnight programme last week that half a trillion Euros (500 Billion Euros) would be needed to stop these banks going bankrupt. French Capital hopes that this money is made available by the European Central Bank (ECB) based in Frankfurt, in Germany. There is big resistance by German Capitalists who do not want to help their Imperialist rivals. In periods of Capitalist crisis within the Imperialist countries Rosa Luxemburg argued was their nation states’ being strengthened in increased competition for declining markets.
In the last two days there have been rumours on the British TV news programmes that the ECB will allocate 100 Billion Euros to bank re-capitalization and that Greece will be given 7 billion in a loan to repay their debts. On ITV news tonight it is reported there are no real agreement on any concrete measures. It is clear that the Greeks cannot repay their debts in full. There is talk of the banks receiving losing between 50% and 60% of their loans investments. Bourgeois Economists use the jargon term of “taking a haircut” to describe these sorts of losses. The most likely development is banks using a lot of money forcing considerable number of them into bankruptcy. Reaching a plaster-like deal which prolongs Greek attempts to repay debts seems unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
Trotskyists need to understand whatever happens next the working class and middle class are going to rebel more as Capital attacks them more. Even in the best scenario for Western European bankers of Greek debt is repaid longer for several weeks to months (at most) the attempted increased austerity measures will lead to bigger revolutionary upheavals in Greece. If the banks’ collapse and millions of workers and middle class elements cannot access their bank accounts this could be a tipping point for revolutionary upheavals within Imperialist countries to threaten Finance Capital’s rule and governments. During December 2001 the banks’ collapse led to the overthrow of a right wing government within Argentina.
The Imperialist ruling classes will manouvre to contain any serious revolutionary threats. Trotsky uses the formula in such situations they make desperate last-minute concessions to the masses in order to stop Socialist revolutions succeeding. Under such threats Liberal Bourgeois elements may feel the necessity of making significant reforms to the working and middle class. Social Democracy may be utilized in Western Europe for those purposes and to hegemonies these radicalizations. Greek Social Democracy is becoming too discredited to play this role. Stalinism may be used by Greek ruling class as a second option to contain threat of Socialist revolution.
One secondary mistake I made in September 2010 was to think Miliband was going over to Social Democracy. On the major issue of his social base in terms of middle class youth, especially students; wider middle class; Trade Union Bureaucrats; and millions of workers were voting for him as leader hoping he strengthen Social Democracy and isolate New Labour. He only survives as leader due to opportunist deals by Trade Union Bureaucrats. Those forces (except for cynical Trade Union Bureaucrats) who voted for Miliband felt betrayed by his deceit.
If Miliband comes out again against the November 30th strikes his cosy relationship which some Trade Union bureaucrats have with Miliband could very likely end as they cannot justify it to rank-and-file Trade Unionists. Trotskyists are missing an historic opportunity due to Ultra-Left forces still having influence to build a mass left wing within the Labour Party of those working and middle class forces radicalizing. By conducting such united front tactics against Miliband Trotskyists would be in a good position to break millions of workers from Social Democracy and towards revolutionary politics. The mistake in September 2010 I made that Miliband would go over to Social Democracy willingly was to under-estimate that he represented New Labour despite the concessions to right wing Social Democrats in opposing ComDem (popular reference to Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition government) would do everything to salvage that New Labour social layer. As a Trotskyist I am opposed to all cuts.
Already Liberal Bourgeois layers reflected by the New York Times in America are trying to contain the radicalization which the Occupy Wall Street movement represents by appearing to support this movement and gear it into Keynesian measures to increase regulations of banking and speculation. Conservative Bourgeois elements in America such as Ron Paul are adapting to the Occupy Wall Street movement by appearing to support it hoping middle class layers move away from their left wing direction of looking to the workers for them to lead a fight against Capital. If the Trade Union Bureaucrats and other opportunists within the workers movement betray anti-Capitalist struggles Right Wing Populists such as Paul hopes to capitalize on despair that would generate within the middle class and hopes to turn them against the working class.
Imperialist Nationalism including liberal versions Trotskyists has to reject because they promote reactionary oppressor nationalism. The American SWP before 1981 in the tradition of Lenin and Trotsky correctly distinguished between the nationalism of the oppressor and those of the oppressed. Conservative Bourgeois elements within Imperialist countries utilize such nationalism to blame other Capitalists in other countries exclusively for socio-economic crises. They also use scapegoats such as Jews; Muslims; and other non-White ethnicities for those problems.
Liberal Bourgeois Imperialist nationalism is equally reactionary because it promotes illusions Imperialist ruling classes will fundamentally change from their exploitative character, and abandon racism; Islamophobia; or ant-Semitism altogether. Their differences with Conservative Bourgeois elements is at most strategic differences or sometimes tactical disagreements over how it affects Capitalist profits/markets or how best to maintain ruling class rule.
Rachael Horwitz has made her worse mistake in adapting to this middle class layer who have those illusions in Liberal Bourgeois layers. Horwitz obviously does not support the Liberal Bourgeoisie or shares these middle class illusions. The mistake is she makes is conceding to English Liberal Nationalism by even signing up to “We like England”. Trotskyists should set up separate facebook groups calling for a workers/Socialist England. We would pose transitional demands to win workers; middle class; and all oppressed nationalities/ethnicities; women; and gays/lesbians of those classes over to this politics.
If the banks’ collapse in Western Europe and America within days positive dynamics of Occupy Wall Street movement will advance much faster in possibly creating pre-revolutionary crises. Any prolonging of Capitalist crisis for several weeks/months will give the chances for Conservative Bourgeois elements to influence any despair coming from lack of success in Occupy Wall Street movement. Trotskyist strategies and tactics have to be to break any Bourgeois influences among those radicalizing and push for mass action to show the masses their power. These are the best ways to build up for Socialist revolutions.
Sunday, 16 October 2011
Why I am writing a book on the Dialetical unity of the Sciences?
o I am studying the natural sciences in order to write a book on the dialectical unity of the Sciences; and show the application of Dialectical Materialism and Law of Uneven and combined Development! I am researching the three theories of how the early universe was formed and developed. One of the things I learned watching Brian Cox's "Wonders of the Universe" TV series which was on BBC 2 this year is that Oxygen could not form without Hydrogen. This shows life could not emerge on Earth without those Cosmological-chemical changes. Is it true protons was one of the first materials that developed in the early universe? Did it precede Atoms? Did Atoms take later to form because they were more complex than Protons?
o
o
o One of the main reasons I am writing this book on the Dialectics of the Sciences is to explore why it took billions of years before life could develop and compare it socially with the culmination now in the worse Capitalist crisis of the struggle to abolish class society. It is no accident that it is now being determined whether humanity survives by overthrowing world Capitalism.
o
o On another level it is no accident that the greatest Scientific achievements are still going ahead. As Trotsky would say it is this historic dialectic of these social contradictions being worked out with all their complexities and subtleties. In other words it is the dialectical interplay of necessity and chance. The role of Marxism as Trotsky and Cannon would say is to give a conscious expression to these processes and push it in the direction of world revolution. Once Trotskyism has established world Socialism the mass of humanity will have chances to study all Sciences which enable them to deal with natural disasters; explore into space more extensively; and consciously deal with most situations.
o
o
o One of the main reasons I am writing this book on the Dialectics of the Sciences is to explore why it took billions of years before life could develop and compare it socially with the culmination now in the worse Capitalist crisis of the struggle to abolish class society. It is no accident that it is now being determined whether humanity survives by overthrowing world Capitalism.
o
o On another level it is no accident that the greatest Scientific achievements are still going ahead. As Trotsky would say it is this historic dialectic of these social contradictions being worked out with all their complexities and subtleties. In other words it is the dialectical interplay of necessity and chance. The role of Marxism as Trotsky and Cannon would say is to give a conscious expression to these processes and push it in the direction of world revolution. Once Trotskyism has established world Socialism the mass of humanity will have chances to study all Sciences which enable them to deal with natural disasters; explore into space more extensively; and consciously deal with most situations.
Thursday, 15 September 2011
Letter to British Socialist Action on a David Fennell article on Libya
It is rare I agree with a British Socialist Action article. The article on Libya published on September 1st 2011 by David Fennell (except for one difference and another possible difference – which I deal with later) is an outstanding theoretical article especially those quotes from Lenin about science of totality and applies it well to Libyan situation. Fennel’s article demolishes the SWP and Counterfire and shows their anti-Marxist method.
Does Socialist Action support the Permanent Revolution? I was wondering about that because a few months ago when I glanced an article on your website which only talked about Lenin on the Colonial revolution and never mentioned Trotsky. What’s missing in Fennel’s article is mention of Permanent Revolution’s method. Fennel is correct to have a military united front with Gaddafi to defeat Imperialism. Within this framework Trotskyists fight for workers to lead the anti-Imperialist struggle in the direction of Socialist revolution.
I fundamentally disagree that Mao was a Revolutionary Marxist. He was always a Stalinist protecting Bureaucratic privileges first based on a party in the workers movement (Chinese Communist Party) and when he overthrow Capitalism during 1950 established a bureaucratic caste which still rules.
I am not sure about your criticism of the SWP and Counterfire on Britain. They are both Ultra-Left and Opportunist. On a lot of questions I consider your positions as opportunist. Despite these differences we should work together to build a united front to stop Imperialist war on Libya.
Anthony Brain
Does Socialist Action support the Permanent Revolution? I was wondering about that because a few months ago when I glanced an article on your website which only talked about Lenin on the Colonial revolution and never mentioned Trotsky. What’s missing in Fennel’s article is mention of Permanent Revolution’s method. Fennel is correct to have a military united front with Gaddafi to defeat Imperialism. Within this framework Trotskyists fight for workers to lead the anti-Imperialist struggle in the direction of Socialist revolution.
I fundamentally disagree that Mao was a Revolutionary Marxist. He was always a Stalinist protecting Bureaucratic privileges first based on a party in the workers movement (Chinese Communist Party) and when he overthrow Capitalism during 1950 established a bureaucratic caste which still rules.
I am not sure about your criticism of the SWP and Counterfire on Britain. They are both Ultra-Left and Opportunist. On a lot of questions I consider your positions as opportunist. Despite these differences we should work together to build a united front to stop Imperialist war on Libya.
Anthony Brain
Tuesday, 13 September 2011
Supplementary comments to document on dangers of World War 3 by Anthony Brain if Capitalist crisis gets further out of control!
(These are supplementary comments to document on Capitalist crisis and how it could unleash forces if it gets out of control and not stopped leading to a third world war! based on developments I read and heard last night)
The Xinhua article makes crystal clear what the Israeli ruling class and American Imperialism is aiming if Palestine declares independence. They are obviously planning for full-scale war in West Bank; Gaza; Arab parts of Israel; and on Lebanese and Syrian border with cameras attached to Israeli armed forces in those areas. American Imperialism by using Israel wants to gain more natural resources by provoking wars with Lebanon and Syria. Due to anti-war feelings in America they could not directly do it themselves. Both American Imperialism and Israeli ruling class fear the mass movement for housing and support for Palestinians with the tent protests in Israel. Whipping up hostility to the Arabs may serve their purposes to derail that mass movement. Why has the Chinese Bureaucracy let this information out? They may be alarmed at the instability American Imperialism could cause. Another major factor is that if American Imperialism dominates the Middle East they will use increased oil ownership to increase pressure on the Chinese Bureaucracy through increased encirclement to make further inroads into that workers’ state.
There cannot be ruled out a last minute pulling back on independence by the Palestinian Authority. That is very unlikely. On Newsnight (a 45 minute news programme on British TV) last night mentioned that the Palestinian Authority will submit their independence call tonight or tomorrow at the UN. I noticed on Xinhua news agency that a Qatar representative is quoted saying that Palestine has not submitted recognition claim to UN yet.
In another important article Xinhua gives a statistical breakdown of how Turkish Imperialism is gaining further ownership and profitable investments within Egypt. Erdogan (Turkish Prime Minister) is in Egypt at least for two days to finalize trade and business agreements. Yesterday Erdogan met Egyptian Prime Minister whose name is Essam Sharaf to agree increasing trade volume from currently three billion dollars to five billion dollars. Co-operation was agreed in technology; communication; petroleum; and natural resources. Finally there was agreement for Turkish companies to invest in Egyptian textiles; clothes; tourism; food industries; and chemicals. Turkish industrial zones will increase. There will be considerable Turkish Imperialist investments in tourism; transportation; and energy sectors. Today Erdogan will meet with Sharaf alongside 200 Egyptian business representatives to finalize contracts. Sections of Egyptian Bourgeoisie are moving in Turkish Imperialism’s orbit because they get a slight more ownership of their economy by allying with them against American Imperialism.
On Newsnight last night there was a serious discussion about Greece leaving the Euro. There is a big battle within the German Ruling Class over what to do. It was revealed on that programme whatever decision is made in the next day or two could determine the Euro’s future. Sections of the German Ruling Class who think Greece will inevitably default on its debt which will lead to a bigger crisis for German banks. By bringing it to a head they believe they can limit the damage. Another equally important faction fears that if Greece defaults it would lead to a Lehman Brothers type collapse on German Banks. Merkel will find it a hard struggle to get rescue package for Greece through the German parliament. This was indicated by Newsnight interviewing Merkel’s chief whip. A British bank representative argued on that programme that whatever happens in Greece it would adversely affect British banks.
Capitalism is in crisis on every level. This creates the objective conditions for world revolution. The problem is that masses within the Imperialist countries do not see the dangers of a full scale Middle East war which Israel will use Palestinian declaration of independence as a pretext to start. When the danger sinks in there could be mass anger. The Stop the War Coalition should raise the dangers of what Israel is doing to stop any major war, If it cannot be stopped they should move to build a mass movement out of anger and fear of it escalating into a third world war.
The Xinhua article makes crystal clear what the Israeli ruling class and American Imperialism is aiming if Palestine declares independence. They are obviously planning for full-scale war in West Bank; Gaza; Arab parts of Israel; and on Lebanese and Syrian border with cameras attached to Israeli armed forces in those areas. American Imperialism by using Israel wants to gain more natural resources by provoking wars with Lebanon and Syria. Due to anti-war feelings in America they could not directly do it themselves. Both American Imperialism and Israeli ruling class fear the mass movement for housing and support for Palestinians with the tent protests in Israel. Whipping up hostility to the Arabs may serve their purposes to derail that mass movement. Why has the Chinese Bureaucracy let this information out? They may be alarmed at the instability American Imperialism could cause. Another major factor is that if American Imperialism dominates the Middle East they will use increased oil ownership to increase pressure on the Chinese Bureaucracy through increased encirclement to make further inroads into that workers’ state.
There cannot be ruled out a last minute pulling back on independence by the Palestinian Authority. That is very unlikely. On Newsnight (a 45 minute news programme on British TV) last night mentioned that the Palestinian Authority will submit their independence call tonight or tomorrow at the UN. I noticed on Xinhua news agency that a Qatar representative is quoted saying that Palestine has not submitted recognition claim to UN yet.
In another important article Xinhua gives a statistical breakdown of how Turkish Imperialism is gaining further ownership and profitable investments within Egypt. Erdogan (Turkish Prime Minister) is in Egypt at least for two days to finalize trade and business agreements. Yesterday Erdogan met Egyptian Prime Minister whose name is Essam Sharaf to agree increasing trade volume from currently three billion dollars to five billion dollars. Co-operation was agreed in technology; communication; petroleum; and natural resources. Finally there was agreement for Turkish companies to invest in Egyptian textiles; clothes; tourism; food industries; and chemicals. Turkish industrial zones will increase. There will be considerable Turkish Imperialist investments in tourism; transportation; and energy sectors. Today Erdogan will meet with Sharaf alongside 200 Egyptian business representatives to finalize contracts. Sections of Egyptian Bourgeoisie are moving in Turkish Imperialism’s orbit because they get a slight more ownership of their economy by allying with them against American Imperialism.
On Newsnight last night there was a serious discussion about Greece leaving the Euro. There is a big battle within the German Ruling Class over what to do. It was revealed on that programme whatever decision is made in the next day or two could determine the Euro’s future. Sections of the German Ruling Class who think Greece will inevitably default on its debt which will lead to a bigger crisis for German banks. By bringing it to a head they believe they can limit the damage. Another equally important faction fears that if Greece defaults it would lead to a Lehman Brothers type collapse on German Banks. Merkel will find it a hard struggle to get rescue package for Greece through the German parliament. This was indicated by Newsnight interviewing Merkel’s chief whip. A British bank representative argued on that programme that whatever happens in Greece it would adversely affect British banks.
Capitalism is in crisis on every level. This creates the objective conditions for world revolution. The problem is that masses within the Imperialist countries do not see the dangers of a full scale Middle East war which Israel will use Palestinian declaration of independence as a pretext to start. When the danger sinks in there could be mass anger. The Stop the War Coalition should raise the dangers of what Israel is doing to stop any major war, If it cannot be stopped they should move to build a mass movement out of anger and fear of it escalating into a third world war.
Some prelimary comments (to a much longer document):- how close are we to World War 3?
“The economic prerequisite for the proletarian revolution has already in general achieved the highest point of fruition that can be reached under capitalism. Humanity’s productive forces stagnate. Already new inventions and improvements fail to raise the level of material wealth. Conjunctural crises under the conditions of the social crisis of the whole capitalist system inflict ever heavier deprivations and sufferings upon the masses. Growing unemployment, in its turn, deepens the financial crisis of the state and undermines the unstable monetary systems. Democratic regimes, as well as fascist, stagger on from one bankruptcy to another...
... The bourgeoisie itself sees no way out. In countries where it has already been forced to stake its last upon the card of fascism, it now toboggans with closed eyes toward an economic and military catastrophe. In the historically privileged countries, i.e., in those where the bourgeoisie can still for a certain period permit itself the luxury of democracy at the expense of national accumulations (Great Britain, France, United States, etc.), all of capital’s traditional parties are in a state of perplexity bordering on a paralysis of will...
... The “New Deal,” despite its first period of pretentious resoluteness, represents but a special form of political perplexity, possible only in a country where the bourgeoisie succeeded in accumulating incalculable wealth. The present crisis, far from having run its full course, has already succeeded in showing that “New Deal” politics, like Popular Front politics in France, opens no new exit from the economic blind alley...
... International relations present no better picture. Under the increasing tension of capitalist disintegration, imperialist antagonisms reach an impasse at the height of which separate clashes and bloody local disturbances (Ethiopia, Spain, the Far East, Central Europe) must inevitably coalesce into a conflagration of world dimensions. The bourgeoisie, of course, is aware of the mortal danger to its domination represented by a new war. But that class is now immeasurably less capable of averting war than on the eve of 1914” – Trotsky: Transitional Programme”.
This description by Trotsky on socio-economic crisis of Capitalism in 1938 could be written today. What’s changed is that after the end of World War 2 the workers’ states expanded; and the Colonial revolution drove out most direct Imperialist rule. Fascism is also not in full power within any Imperialist country. American Capitalism is in a worse crisis now than during the New Deal years. This is why the class struggle could be sharper due to faster falling profit rates. Trotsky mentioned that being a possibility in 1938 but the Second World War enabled them to make concessions to workers as American Capitalists made massive profits from re-dividing world markets and international division of labour.
If Capitalism is not overthrown within the Imperialist countries a worse catastrophe than the previous two world wars with the danger of nuclear war. The Imperialists do not want nuclear war at this stage. There are however several number of flashpoints globally once ignited could easily escalate out of control. Trotsky’s key point is made is that the Imperialist ruling classes have little control when there is a severe Capitalist crisis. This is what should be stressed in Trotskyist agitation.
We should also promote an important idea that only mass action of millions can stop Imperialist wars. Bush and the Neo-Cons with their crudity in their tactics weakened the creditability of Capitalism with at least millions within the Imperialist countries fearing a third world war, particularly how that America administration handled Iraq’s 2002-03 crises. Bush and Blair were exposed as liars over Iraq. Then came the beginning of what could be the worse Capitalist economic crisis ever after 2007. This has further undermined the creditability of ruling class rule in Britain. Wikileaks exposing double dealing with Imperialist diplomacy has also further weakens the Imperialist ruling classes rule.
From 2002 there were great opportunities missed when Bush-led offensive against the semi-Colonies and workers’ states started to run into objective trouble. 1989 was not predetermined that Imperialism would make major gains. It was the failure of the ex-Trotskyists to build leadership in Eastern Europe and ex-Soviet States to deepen the process of Political Revolution after disillusionment set in with the concillationist elements of Bureaucratic Castes to Imperialism started implementing their policies.
Imperialism did not succeed in restoring Capitalism (except for ex-GDR and Kosovo) but utilized those workers states’ crisis to demoralize whole layers of workers militants within the Imperialist countries which enabled Capital to gain at the expense of workers. American Imperialism really went on the offensive with Russia’s decline to re-colonize semi-colonies; and attempted overthrow of Serbian workers’ state. By Yeltsin being defeated in 2000 and American Imperialism losing the Afghan and Iraq wars slowed down timetable for World War 3.
Dialectically we are at the crossroads. There is the greatest chance objectively to overthrow Capitalism but we need to reconstruct a revolutionary leadership. The masses are beginning to radicalize and early stages questioning Capitalism. They sense some major crisis is coming but are still lagging behind objective reality. This is why I am spending several days/weeks analyzing the tensions between semi-Colonies and Imperialism; the growing conflict between workers’ states and Imperialism; inter-Semi-Colonial Bourgeois wars (between states and civil wars); and inter-Imperialist rivalries. That is my next big document. From that analysis strategies and tactics can be worked out to stop a third world war.
Trotskyists should utilize the crisis within Centrist groups and internationals to challenge their retreat on the workers’ states and semi-Colonies to theoretically clarify the situation in an educational manner by pointing out superiority of Revolutionary Marxist method over their methodological errors. As American Trotskyist Jim Cannon argued you cannot train a cadre in factional abuse but utilize great disputes over programme; method; and strategy to forge such a cadre. Lenin argued in “Left Wing Communism and infantile disorder” that the Bolshevik cadre was forged in such battles. Out of that process of left centrist currents emerging we hope to win the better elements to Trotskyism. The main focus in terms of accumulating initial Trotskyist cadres should be to the middle class intellectuals who are beginning to radicalize.
Before I finish I want to analyze current developments within the Middle East; tensions over Greek Cypriot gas rights; and tensions between Russian workers’ state and EU Imperialists over Caspian gas pipeline. The Palestinian Bourgeoisie in the West Bank are trying to stay in power by gaining major concessions from Israeli Zionist ruling class. Israel’s ruling class cannot afford to make any significant compromises because it would unravel the Zionist project.
Revolutionary upheavals in Tunisia; Egypt; Yemen; and Bahrain potentially strengthen the Palestinian struggle. In yesterday’s Jerusalem Post I read that a leading Saudi prince who an ex-Saudi ambassador to America has warned if they veto Palestine’s recognition this could lead to an all out Middle East war and even his regime falling in revolution. Trotskyists are opposed to a separate Palestinian state because it is an abandonment of a struggle to overthrow Zionism. At the same time we respect the Palestinian right to declare independence and demand Israel does not anything to stop it. We do everything to stop Israel starting a war over this. Unfortunately a war is very likely. Trotskyists within Israel should do utilize the civil unrest over housing to stop their ruling class launching a war against the Palestinians. In any war Trotskyists call for a Palestinian victory and support other Arab countries if they fight against Israel. If there is a crisis on this scale we utilize it to overthrow Zionism, and fight for a democratic and secular Palestine.
Turkish Imperialism is going on the offensive to gain more markets within the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean. Their naked Imperialist character is shown in how they are threatening to send warships to eastern Mediterranean to stop Greek Cypriots and Israel from gaining gas resources. Both Imperialist powers :- Greek Cypriots and Israel have threatened military retaliation. In this context Turkish Imperialism is utilizing the Palestinian declaration of independence to weaken American Imperialism and their allies so they can gain more markets at their expense. In the Jerusalem Post today there are articles saying that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is in Egypt to meet that country’s new leadership and Abbas (Palestinian President) to encourage them towards Palestinian independence.
If a major war breaks out over Palestine there is a dangerous conflict between Turkish Imperialism against American Imperialism and their ally Israel a dangerous situation to world peace could occur. If Turkish Imperialism becomes predominant in the fight against Israel we may withdraw support to some Arab Bourgeois armies because they are becoming their pawns. This would certainly be my position if Turkish troops fought alongside Arab troops.
Another dangerous situation is the report in today’s Xinhua website that American Imperialism has heavily bombed on September 5th this year Jaar. Jaar is the second largest city in southern Abyan province. It is located in southern Yemen. Two mosques were destroyed in the air raids.
In what is the potential worse flashpoint for world peace is the growing tensions between EU Imperialists and Russian workers’ state over a Caspian Sea pipeline. Yesterday the EU is making provisional agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to bypass Russia in gas pipelines directly to Western Europe. This has really upset the Russian Bureaucracy. What will the Russian Bureaucracy do in that context if there is a Turkish-Israeli war? They may be indifferent hoping they are both weakened. Will American Imperialism enter the war if Israel is losing very much? In 1973 the Soviet Bureaucracy threatened a nuclear war if American Imperialism had intervened n the Yom Kipper war. Could the Russian Bureaucracy react in a similar way if American Imperialism utilized the war chaos as a pretext to go into Syria? Anti-war movements in America could restrain American Imperialism from going too far.
... The bourgeoisie itself sees no way out. In countries where it has already been forced to stake its last upon the card of fascism, it now toboggans with closed eyes toward an economic and military catastrophe. In the historically privileged countries, i.e., in those where the bourgeoisie can still for a certain period permit itself the luxury of democracy at the expense of national accumulations (Great Britain, France, United States, etc.), all of capital’s traditional parties are in a state of perplexity bordering on a paralysis of will...
... The “New Deal,” despite its first period of pretentious resoluteness, represents but a special form of political perplexity, possible only in a country where the bourgeoisie succeeded in accumulating incalculable wealth. The present crisis, far from having run its full course, has already succeeded in showing that “New Deal” politics, like Popular Front politics in France, opens no new exit from the economic blind alley...
... International relations present no better picture. Under the increasing tension of capitalist disintegration, imperialist antagonisms reach an impasse at the height of which separate clashes and bloody local disturbances (Ethiopia, Spain, the Far East, Central Europe) must inevitably coalesce into a conflagration of world dimensions. The bourgeoisie, of course, is aware of the mortal danger to its domination represented by a new war. But that class is now immeasurably less capable of averting war than on the eve of 1914” – Trotsky: Transitional Programme”.
This description by Trotsky on socio-economic crisis of Capitalism in 1938 could be written today. What’s changed is that after the end of World War 2 the workers’ states expanded; and the Colonial revolution drove out most direct Imperialist rule. Fascism is also not in full power within any Imperialist country. American Capitalism is in a worse crisis now than during the New Deal years. This is why the class struggle could be sharper due to faster falling profit rates. Trotsky mentioned that being a possibility in 1938 but the Second World War enabled them to make concessions to workers as American Capitalists made massive profits from re-dividing world markets and international division of labour.
If Capitalism is not overthrown within the Imperialist countries a worse catastrophe than the previous two world wars with the danger of nuclear war. The Imperialists do not want nuclear war at this stage. There are however several number of flashpoints globally once ignited could easily escalate out of control. Trotsky’s key point is made is that the Imperialist ruling classes have little control when there is a severe Capitalist crisis. This is what should be stressed in Trotskyist agitation.
We should also promote an important idea that only mass action of millions can stop Imperialist wars. Bush and the Neo-Cons with their crudity in their tactics weakened the creditability of Capitalism with at least millions within the Imperialist countries fearing a third world war, particularly how that America administration handled Iraq’s 2002-03 crises. Bush and Blair were exposed as liars over Iraq. Then came the beginning of what could be the worse Capitalist economic crisis ever after 2007. This has further undermined the creditability of ruling class rule in Britain. Wikileaks exposing double dealing with Imperialist diplomacy has also further weakens the Imperialist ruling classes rule.
From 2002 there were great opportunities missed when Bush-led offensive against the semi-Colonies and workers’ states started to run into objective trouble. 1989 was not predetermined that Imperialism would make major gains. It was the failure of the ex-Trotskyists to build leadership in Eastern Europe and ex-Soviet States to deepen the process of Political Revolution after disillusionment set in with the concillationist elements of Bureaucratic Castes to Imperialism started implementing their policies.
Imperialism did not succeed in restoring Capitalism (except for ex-GDR and Kosovo) but utilized those workers states’ crisis to demoralize whole layers of workers militants within the Imperialist countries which enabled Capital to gain at the expense of workers. American Imperialism really went on the offensive with Russia’s decline to re-colonize semi-colonies; and attempted overthrow of Serbian workers’ state. By Yeltsin being defeated in 2000 and American Imperialism losing the Afghan and Iraq wars slowed down timetable for World War 3.
Dialectically we are at the crossroads. There is the greatest chance objectively to overthrow Capitalism but we need to reconstruct a revolutionary leadership. The masses are beginning to radicalize and early stages questioning Capitalism. They sense some major crisis is coming but are still lagging behind objective reality. This is why I am spending several days/weeks analyzing the tensions between semi-Colonies and Imperialism; the growing conflict between workers’ states and Imperialism; inter-Semi-Colonial Bourgeois wars (between states and civil wars); and inter-Imperialist rivalries. That is my next big document. From that analysis strategies and tactics can be worked out to stop a third world war.
Trotskyists should utilize the crisis within Centrist groups and internationals to challenge their retreat on the workers’ states and semi-Colonies to theoretically clarify the situation in an educational manner by pointing out superiority of Revolutionary Marxist method over their methodological errors. As American Trotskyist Jim Cannon argued you cannot train a cadre in factional abuse but utilize great disputes over programme; method; and strategy to forge such a cadre. Lenin argued in “Left Wing Communism and infantile disorder” that the Bolshevik cadre was forged in such battles. Out of that process of left centrist currents emerging we hope to win the better elements to Trotskyism. The main focus in terms of accumulating initial Trotskyist cadres should be to the middle class intellectuals who are beginning to radicalize.
Before I finish I want to analyze current developments within the Middle East; tensions over Greek Cypriot gas rights; and tensions between Russian workers’ state and EU Imperialists over Caspian gas pipeline. The Palestinian Bourgeoisie in the West Bank are trying to stay in power by gaining major concessions from Israeli Zionist ruling class. Israel’s ruling class cannot afford to make any significant compromises because it would unravel the Zionist project.
Revolutionary upheavals in Tunisia; Egypt; Yemen; and Bahrain potentially strengthen the Palestinian struggle. In yesterday’s Jerusalem Post I read that a leading Saudi prince who an ex-Saudi ambassador to America has warned if they veto Palestine’s recognition this could lead to an all out Middle East war and even his regime falling in revolution. Trotskyists are opposed to a separate Palestinian state because it is an abandonment of a struggle to overthrow Zionism. At the same time we respect the Palestinian right to declare independence and demand Israel does not anything to stop it. We do everything to stop Israel starting a war over this. Unfortunately a war is very likely. Trotskyists within Israel should do utilize the civil unrest over housing to stop their ruling class launching a war against the Palestinians. In any war Trotskyists call for a Palestinian victory and support other Arab countries if they fight against Israel. If there is a crisis on this scale we utilize it to overthrow Zionism, and fight for a democratic and secular Palestine.
Turkish Imperialism is going on the offensive to gain more markets within the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean. Their naked Imperialist character is shown in how they are threatening to send warships to eastern Mediterranean to stop Greek Cypriots and Israel from gaining gas resources. Both Imperialist powers :- Greek Cypriots and Israel have threatened military retaliation. In this context Turkish Imperialism is utilizing the Palestinian declaration of independence to weaken American Imperialism and their allies so they can gain more markets at their expense. In the Jerusalem Post today there are articles saying that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is in Egypt to meet that country’s new leadership and Abbas (Palestinian President) to encourage them towards Palestinian independence.
If a major war breaks out over Palestine there is a dangerous conflict between Turkish Imperialism against American Imperialism and their ally Israel a dangerous situation to world peace could occur. If Turkish Imperialism becomes predominant in the fight against Israel we may withdraw support to some Arab Bourgeois armies because they are becoming their pawns. This would certainly be my position if Turkish troops fought alongside Arab troops.
Another dangerous situation is the report in today’s Xinhua website that American Imperialism has heavily bombed on September 5th this year Jaar. Jaar is the second largest city in southern Abyan province. It is located in southern Yemen. Two mosques were destroyed in the air raids.
In what is the potential worse flashpoint for world peace is the growing tensions between EU Imperialists and Russian workers’ state over a Caspian Sea pipeline. Yesterday the EU is making provisional agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to bypass Russia in gas pipelines directly to Western Europe. This has really upset the Russian Bureaucracy. What will the Russian Bureaucracy do in that context if there is a Turkish-Israeli war? They may be indifferent hoping they are both weakened. Will American Imperialism enter the war if Israel is losing very much? In 1973 the Soviet Bureaucracy threatened a nuclear war if American Imperialism had intervened n the Yom Kipper war. Could the Russian Bureaucracy react in a similar way if American Imperialism utilized the war chaos as a pretext to go into Syria? Anti-war movements in America could restrain American Imperialism from going too far.
Wednesday, 7 September 2011
How fast is Putin reconstructing the old Soviet Union?
From what I have been reading in Xinhua since last Saturday indicates that Putin is moving very fast to reconstruct as much of the old Soviet Union as possible. I read on Saturday at Xinhua is the 11 economic ministers agreed in May this year to establish a CIS-wide free trade zone. In Tajikistan the same evening the heads of governments agreed to that free trade zone. It will receive final ratification in November.
There was an interesting article in Xinhua that Saturday arguing the non-Russian CIS countries (except for Georgia) stuck with Russia to stop Imperialism destroying what remained of the bureaucratic caste privileges and stop them becoming semi-Colonies of cheap raw materials. This is why Imperialism did everything to pressure Yeltsin to make massive Capitalist inroads because if they could restore Capitalism in Russia they could have completed that process in ex-Soviet states and Eastern Europe. Imperialism’s defeat by the removal of Yeltsin slowed Capitalist restoration in those areas of the world. It was an important victory for world revolution because it weakened Imperialism globally. If Yeltsin was not defeated Imperialism may have launched additional wars.
The material in this Xinhua article (see appendix) shows the nationalized parts of the workers’ states are linking up. There could be underhanded Russian Bureaucratic pressure for Gazprom to control Zalkar (Kyrgyz nationalized bank) and take over Kyrgyzneftgas and Kyrgzgas. Trotskyists argue the break-up of the Soviet Union was a major setback for the productive forces. We would be in favour of it coming back together on a voluntary basis.
There a number of Bureaucratic adventures Trotskyists would not support tactically. For example Trotskyists would not have been cutting off gas to the Ukrainian masses. Such moves could have alienated the masses and played into the hands of concillationist elements of Ukrainian Bureaucracy to Imperialism and Capitalist restorationist forces. In another similar situation I disagreed with how the Soviet Bureaucracy carried out the Berlin blockade during 1948-49 which alienated the West German masses and played into Imperialism’s hands. They were trying to pressure Imperialism through Bureaucratic manoeuvres but not want to extend the Socialist revolution westwards because if they overthrow Capitalist West Germany it would have caused the political revolution within Soviet Union. At the same if Imperialism had attacked the Soviet occupying forces we would defend that military force of Soviet workers’ state against Imperialism. Trotskyists give critical support under certain conditions if specific bureaucratic actions in economically reconstructing the Soviet Union coincide with what is in the workers’ states interest.
There was an interesting article in Xinhua that Saturday arguing the non-Russian CIS countries (except for Georgia) stuck with Russia to stop Imperialism destroying what remained of the bureaucratic caste privileges and stop them becoming semi-Colonies of cheap raw materials. This is why Imperialism did everything to pressure Yeltsin to make massive Capitalist inroads because if they could restore Capitalism in Russia they could have completed that process in ex-Soviet states and Eastern Europe. Imperialism’s defeat by the removal of Yeltsin slowed Capitalist restoration in those areas of the world. It was an important victory for world revolution because it weakened Imperialism globally. If Yeltsin was not defeated Imperialism may have launched additional wars.
The material in this Xinhua article (see appendix) shows the nationalized parts of the workers’ states are linking up. There could be underhanded Russian Bureaucratic pressure for Gazprom to control Zalkar (Kyrgyz nationalized bank) and take over Kyrgyzneftgas and Kyrgzgas. Trotskyists argue the break-up of the Soviet Union was a major setback for the productive forces. We would be in favour of it coming back together on a voluntary basis.
There a number of Bureaucratic adventures Trotskyists would not support tactically. For example Trotskyists would not have been cutting off gas to the Ukrainian masses. Such moves could have alienated the masses and played into the hands of concillationist elements of Ukrainian Bureaucracy to Imperialism and Capitalist restorationist forces. In another similar situation I disagreed with how the Soviet Bureaucracy carried out the Berlin blockade during 1948-49 which alienated the West German masses and played into Imperialism’s hands. They were trying to pressure Imperialism through Bureaucratic manoeuvres but not want to extend the Socialist revolution westwards because if they overthrow Capitalist West Germany it would have caused the political revolution within Soviet Union. At the same if Imperialism had attacked the Soviet occupying forces we would defend that military force of Soviet workers’ state against Imperialism. Trotskyists give critical support under certain conditions if specific bureaucratic actions in economically reconstructing the Soviet Union coincide with what is in the workers’ states interest.
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