British Ruling Class political manourves in relation to economic crisis

Reports on news channels today shows the scale of British Capitalism's problems. Vince Cable has revealed that the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and possible Barclay debts being bailed out by the government exceeds national income. Will Hutton in last Sunday's Observer raised the serious possibility of national bankruptcy. There is talk of printing money which could cuase inflation and even worse hyper-inflation. The astronomical scale of debts is comparable to the Versailles settlement imposed on Germany after World War 1. It cannot be totally ruled out a 1923-type hyper-inflation crisis. Speculation is rife in the media that if there is a run on the pound British Capitalism will require an IMF bail-out and even interest rates going up ro restore investers' confidence. Above is the British aspects of a global crisis which is effecting all Capitalist countries.


As the Financial Times stated recently these rapid economic changes will cause political shifts. If bankruptcky becomes a real danger and dramatic increases in unemployment a revolutionary upheaval could occur. National bankputcy was one of the factors which led to a revolution in France during 1789.


A massive economic crisis following World War 2 in China led to the 1949-50 Socialist revolution. In Britain unlike China a counter-revolutionary force such as Stalinism or Social Democracy where Chinese Stalinism despite being subjectively counter-revolutionary led an objective Socialist revolution will be incapable of leading such a revolution but would require a subjective revolutionary leadership. It only through applying Dialectical Materialism that you can understand a Petty-Bourgeois force of Stalinism being based on a Workers' Bureaucracy in China out of their own material interests of self-preservation against a murderous opponent of Bourgeois Nationalism around Chaing had to go further than intended by overthrowing Capitalism. If a pre-revolutionary crisis breaks out Brown might resign and a left Social Democratic government installed to salvage Capitalism.


If class relations do not explode before the next general election it's outcome is uncertain. Liberal Bourgeois elements prefer a coalition government between New Labour faction of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats Party (Lib Dems) by attacking the working class in Britain and trying to keep the European Union (EU) intact against tendencies for it to break-up.


Conservative Bourgoeis elements are attempting to woo the majority of Capitalists by showing they are most effective in attacking workers. This could be behind the move to bring back Clarke to the Tory shadow cabinet on economics. The Conservative wing of the Bourgeoisie have stabed the Aristocracy in the back outraged by a possible Liberal Populist appeal (see article on Willam Wales posted last December) with revelations around the Price of Wales and his son Harry Wales's racism. It is rumored that Kate Middleton will be in America for a period of time. This might represent a move to be identified with Obama which would undermine Conservative Bourgeois attempts to portray Willam Wales as a racist. Traditional right-wingers based on different Bourgeois and Aristocratic class interests which have been united for at least decades are fragmenting under the impact of a worse depression since the War of 1812.


It is intersting to note that Vince Cable has said that in an event of a hung parliament they could serve in a coalition government with either Labour or Tory parties. Behind this the Bourgeoisie do not know which way workers and middle class will go politically. If the Tories do not win decisvely the Bourgeosie may go behind their prefered coalition with New Labour and may restrain certain attacks on workers fearing a growth of more left wing forces. On the other hand if the Tories win sufficiently the ruling class may feel they have the balance of forces to go further in their attacks on workers.


The ruling class are worried of a possible growth of a left within the Labour Party. They may use Left Wing Social Democracy as a last resort to contain a possible revolutionary threat. Outside of that scenoro the ruling class's dillema is that four years into a parliament they cannot form a coalition government before the next election. Labour could be on the verge of splitting between Social Demoracy and the Bourgeois New Labour faction.


A major problem is that there is only a handful of genuine Trotskyists in Britain. The objective conditions for the growth of Trotskyism with workers making gains due to revolutionary upheavals and layers of middle class intellectuals radicalising could lead to a Trotskyist organisation being formed with a substantial mass base. If revoluionary opportunities are missed like 1923 in Germany could play into counter-revolutionaries' hands.