“The economic prerequisite for the proletarian revolution has already in general achieved the highest point of fruition that can be reached under capitalism. Humanity’s productive forces stagnate. Already new inventions and improvements fail to raise the level of material wealth. Conjunctural crises under the conditions of the social crisis of the whole capitalist system inflict ever heavier deprivations and sufferings upon the masses. Growing unemployment, in its turn, deepens the financial crisis of the state and undermines the unstable monetary systems. Democratic regimes, as well as fascist, stagger on from one bankruptcy to another...
... The bourgeoisie itself sees no way out. In countries where it has already been forced to stake its last upon the card of fascism, it now toboggans with closed eyes toward an economic and military catastrophe. In the historically privileged countries, i.e., in those where the bourgeoisie can still for a certain period permit itself the luxury of democracy at the expense of national accumulations (Great Britain, France, United States, etc.), all of capital’s traditional parties are in a state of perplexity bordering on a paralysis of will...
... The “New Deal,” despite its first period of pretentious resoluteness, represents but a special form of political perplexity, possible only in a country where the bourgeoisie succeeded in accumulating incalculable wealth. The present crisis, far from having run its full course, has already succeeded in showing that “New Deal” politics, like Popular Front politics in France, opens no new exit from the economic blind alley...
... International relations present no better picture. Under the increasing tension of capitalist disintegration, imperialist antagonisms reach an impasse at the height of which separate clashes and bloody local disturbances (Ethiopia, Spain, the Far East, Central Europe) must inevitably coalesce into a conflagration of world dimensions. The bourgeoisie, of course, is aware of the mortal danger to its domination represented by a new war. But that class is now immeasurably less capable of averting war than on the eve of 1914” – Trotsky: Transitional Programme”.
This description by Trotsky on socio-economic crisis of Capitalism in 1938 could be written today. What’s changed is that after the end of World War 2 the workers’ states expanded; and the Colonial revolution drove out most direct Imperialist rule. Fascism is also not in full power within any Imperialist country. American Capitalism is in a worse crisis now than during the New Deal years. This is why the class struggle could be sharper due to faster falling profit rates. Trotsky mentioned that being a possibility in 1938 but the Second World War enabled them to make concessions to workers as American Capitalists made massive profits from re-dividing world markets and international division of labour.
If Capitalism is not overthrown within the Imperialist countries a worse catastrophe than the previous two world wars with the danger of nuclear war. The Imperialists do not want nuclear war at this stage. There are however several number of flashpoints globally once ignited could easily escalate out of control. Trotsky’s key point is made is that the Imperialist ruling classes have little control when there is a severe Capitalist crisis. This is what should be stressed in Trotskyist agitation.
We should also promote an important idea that only mass action of millions can stop Imperialist wars. Bush and the Neo-Cons with their crudity in their tactics weakened the creditability of Capitalism with at least millions within the Imperialist countries fearing a third world war, particularly how that America administration handled Iraq’s 2002-03 crises. Bush and Blair were exposed as liars over Iraq. Then came the beginning of what could be the worse Capitalist economic crisis ever after 2007. This has further undermined the creditability of ruling class rule in Britain. Wikileaks exposing double dealing with Imperialist diplomacy has also further weakens the Imperialist ruling classes rule.
From 2002 there were great opportunities missed when Bush-led offensive against the semi-Colonies and workers’ states started to run into objective trouble. 1989 was not predetermined that Imperialism would make major gains. It was the failure of the ex-Trotskyists to build leadership in Eastern Europe and ex-Soviet States to deepen the process of Political Revolution after disillusionment set in with the concillationist elements of Bureaucratic Castes to Imperialism started implementing their policies.
Imperialism did not succeed in restoring Capitalism (except for ex-GDR and Kosovo) but utilized those workers states’ crisis to demoralize whole layers of workers militants within the Imperialist countries which enabled Capital to gain at the expense of workers. American Imperialism really went on the offensive with Russia’s decline to re-colonize semi-colonies; and attempted overthrow of Serbian workers’ state. By Yeltsin being defeated in 2000 and American Imperialism losing the Afghan and Iraq wars slowed down timetable for World War 3.
Dialectically we are at the crossroads. There is the greatest chance objectively to overthrow Capitalism but we need to reconstruct a revolutionary leadership. The masses are beginning to radicalize and early stages questioning Capitalism. They sense some major crisis is coming but are still lagging behind objective reality. This is why I am spending several days/weeks analyzing the tensions between semi-Colonies and Imperialism; the growing conflict between workers’ states and Imperialism; inter-Semi-Colonial Bourgeois wars (between states and civil wars); and inter-Imperialist rivalries. That is my next big document. From that analysis strategies and tactics can be worked out to stop a third world war.
Trotskyists should utilize the crisis within Centrist groups and internationals to challenge their retreat on the workers’ states and semi-Colonies to theoretically clarify the situation in an educational manner by pointing out superiority of Revolutionary Marxist method over their methodological errors. As American Trotskyist Jim Cannon argued you cannot train a cadre in factional abuse but utilize great disputes over programme; method; and strategy to forge such a cadre. Lenin argued in “Left Wing Communism and infantile disorder” that the Bolshevik cadre was forged in such battles. Out of that process of left centrist currents emerging we hope to win the better elements to Trotskyism. The main focus in terms of accumulating initial Trotskyist cadres should be to the middle class intellectuals who are beginning to radicalize.
Before I finish I want to analyze current developments within the Middle East; tensions over Greek Cypriot gas rights; and tensions between Russian workers’ state and EU Imperialists over Caspian gas pipeline. The Palestinian Bourgeoisie in the West Bank are trying to stay in power by gaining major concessions from Israeli Zionist ruling class. Israel’s ruling class cannot afford to make any significant compromises because it would unravel the Zionist project.
Revolutionary upheavals in Tunisia; Egypt; Yemen; and Bahrain potentially strengthen the Palestinian struggle. In yesterday’s Jerusalem Post I read that a leading Saudi prince who an ex-Saudi ambassador to America has warned if they veto Palestine’s recognition this could lead to an all out Middle East war and even his regime falling in revolution. Trotskyists are opposed to a separate Palestinian state because it is an abandonment of a struggle to overthrow Zionism. At the same time we respect the Palestinian right to declare independence and demand Israel does not anything to stop it. We do everything to stop Israel starting a war over this. Unfortunately a war is very likely. Trotskyists within Israel should do utilize the civil unrest over housing to stop their ruling class launching a war against the Palestinians. In any war Trotskyists call for a Palestinian victory and support other Arab countries if they fight against Israel. If there is a crisis on this scale we utilize it to overthrow Zionism, and fight for a democratic and secular Palestine.
Turkish Imperialism is going on the offensive to gain more markets within the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean. Their naked Imperialist character is shown in how they are threatening to send warships to eastern Mediterranean to stop Greek Cypriots and Israel from gaining gas resources. Both Imperialist powers :- Greek Cypriots and Israel have threatened military retaliation. In this context Turkish Imperialism is utilizing the Palestinian declaration of independence to weaken American Imperialism and their allies so they can gain more markets at their expense. In the Jerusalem Post today there are articles saying that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is in Egypt to meet that country’s new leadership and Abbas (Palestinian President) to encourage them towards Palestinian independence.
If a major war breaks out over Palestine there is a dangerous conflict between Turkish Imperialism against American Imperialism and their ally Israel a dangerous situation to world peace could occur. If Turkish Imperialism becomes predominant in the fight against Israel we may withdraw support to some Arab Bourgeois armies because they are becoming their pawns. This would certainly be my position if Turkish troops fought alongside Arab troops.
Another dangerous situation is the report in today’s Xinhua website that American Imperialism has heavily bombed on September 5th this year Jaar. Jaar is the second largest city in southern Abyan province. It is located in southern Yemen. Two mosques were destroyed in the air raids.
In what is the potential worse flashpoint for world peace is the growing tensions between EU Imperialists and Russian workers’ state over a Caspian Sea pipeline. Yesterday the EU is making provisional agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to bypass Russia in gas pipelines directly to Western Europe. This has really upset the Russian Bureaucracy. What will the Russian Bureaucracy do in that context if there is a Turkish-Israeli war? They may be indifferent hoping they are both weakened. Will American Imperialism enter the war if Israel is losing very much? In 1973 the Soviet Bureaucracy threatened a nuclear war if American Imperialism had intervened n the Yom Kipper war. Could the Russian Bureaucracy react in a similar way if American Imperialism utilized the war chaos as a pretext to go into Syria? Anti-war movements in America could restrain American Imperialism from going too far.
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